JimRogers
0x4ab42d2622b6120b8173a871aaa3902ba96040fd
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $110.2k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $618.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.520 | 0.405 | $311.54 | −$88.46 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.305 | $283.07 | −$19.06 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.405 | $24.30 | −$5.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$219.33at 0.318MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$189.04at 0.657Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?
- +$135.96at 0.631US government shutdown by October 1?
- +$126.70at 0.724Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?
- +$97.99at 0.145MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 16:18 | Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.0552006119 | $11.01 |
| 09-14 14:31 | Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.36 |
| 09-14 14:30 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.12 | $500.47 |
| 09-14 14:24 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.13 | $624.00 |
| 09-14 14:24 | Blue wave in 2026? | SELL | 0.2291444444 | $49.50 |
| 08-03 12:44 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.329999999 | $169.75 |
| 08-03 12:43 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $44.30 |
| 08-03 12:42 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $88.08 |
| 07-16 18:46 | Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.8499999946 | $150.00 |
| 07-16 18:46 | Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 07-16 18:44 | Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.83 | $21.63 |
| 05-27 15:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6037236145 | $443.49 |
| 05-27 15:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $852.49 |
| 05-27 15:36 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.608 | $18.10 |
| 05-26 21:47 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.682 | $15.97 |