Johnboll
0x4ab30fe8e29658fc9d3e6db061285d4c4efd4494
- Realised P&L
- $-38.09
- Volume
- $492.48
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $5.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.995 | $5.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.933 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.76at 0.696Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$1.12at 0.692Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
- +$0.65at 0.704Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?
- +$0.54at 0.864Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
- +$0.35at 0.935Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 09:49 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.30 |
| 09-15 09:48 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9649999942 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 16:54 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 06:56 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.69 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 19:46 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9449998027 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 19:36 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9329993189 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 19:34 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $5.56 |
| 05-13 17:03 | Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9799999751 | $5.50 |
| 05-06 11:39 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BUY | 0.98 | $5.38 |
| 04-30 14:16 | Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999977 | $3.00 |
| 04-29 13:27 | Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $2.00 |
| 04-29 13:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $5.05 |
| 04-27 11:06 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9499998827 | $4.86 |
| 04-27 11:05 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $3.03 |
| 04-22 11:39 | Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999347 | $1.58 |