twerk4hv
0x4aac816a4aa83520b4718b6cf2617e8040c9ced2
- Realised P&L
- $-18.3k
- Volume
- $1.08M
- Markets traded
- 487
- Open portfolio
- $11.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded487
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$647.89at 0.973Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
- +$595.00at 0.880Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 27 above $5.50?
- +$492.88at 0.930Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $136-$138 on the final day of trading of the week of May 4 – May 8?
- +$330.42at 0.995Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?
- +$253.84at 0.967Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 11 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 17:04 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.864 | $387.47 |
| 09-12 06:43 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.2647368421 | $20.12 |
| 09-12 06:43 | Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.2368377353 | $29.95 |
| 09-12 06:42 | Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.07 | $22.47 |
| 09-11 19:57 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $188 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $22.25 |
| 09-03 23:15 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 7? | BUY | 0.9490830146 | $109.18 |
| 09-03 20:39 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.8968996514 | $378.16 |
| 09-03 20:37 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.8826557705 | $13.23 |
| 09-03 20:37 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.7992575454 | $203.12 |
| 06-30 07:24 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.80 |
| 06-01 13:37 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? | BUY | 0.0489874176 | $245.28 |
| 06-01 13:30 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? | BUY | 0.2893361445 | $347.20 |
| 06-01 13:30 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? | BUY | 0.151680247 | $129.67 |
| 06-01 13:29 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? | BUY | 0.9907522606 | $79.98 |
| 05-31 19:55 | Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9825748281 | $2.3k |