lalalaland
0x4a941320faf5998f456b8f049ed7713d3df1a136
- Realised P&L
- $-5.6k
- Volume
- $264.8k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $107.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.015 | $107.64 | +$73.54 |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL? · No | 0.433 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.39 |
| Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.17 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$308.84 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$841.55 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 days? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.57 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting? · No | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$246.48at 0.223Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
- +$86.66at 0.530Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?
- +$56.00at 0.440Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?
- +$32.67at 0.472Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$25.58at 0.491Will no new pope be elected in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-03 15:21 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.21 | $137.37 |
| 03-30 11:54 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.004 | $2.00 |
| 03-30 11:51 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $13.91 |
| 03-30 01:38 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $3.38 |
| 03-29 18:55 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $26.90 |
| 10-20 11:53 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1961469877 | $38.94 |
| 10-20 11:52 | Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? | SELL | 0.015 | $7.56 |
| 10-20 11:52 | Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? | SELL | 0.016 | $32.15 |
| 10-20 09:04 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.196 | $2.53 |
| 10-20 09:03 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.1913096464 | $55.73 |
| 10-20 09:02 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.178 | $11.04 |
| 10-20 06:38 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.237 | $47.40 |
| 10-20 06:37 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.2275904938 | $146.71 |
| 10-20 06:35 | Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | SELL | 0.0039133406 | $355.47 |
| 10-20 06:35 | Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | SELL | 0.0025536531 | $9.22 |