bourn22
0x4a86353a4c7d93f7a68fb802656a253824602220
- Realised P&L
- $7.3k
- Volume
- $843.1k
- Markets traded
- 305
- Open portfolio
- $4.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded305
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.606 | 0.586 | $4.7k | −$165.53 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.034 | $109.87 | −$180.96 |
| Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.460 | $1.94 | −$2.11 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$440.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.1kat 0.305Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?
- +$7.6kat 0.169Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$4.6kat 0.338US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.5kat 0.243Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
- +$2.6kat 0.837Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 14:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $38.27 |
| 10-30 14:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.581 | $581.00 |
| 10-29 23:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.606 | $4.76 |
| 10-29 17:53 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.3738095573 | $2.0k |
| 10-29 17:52 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5915070928 | $3.7k |
| 10-28 04:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.649 | $80.48 |
| 10-28 04:14 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.0k |
| 10-27 14:02 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.0k |
| 10-26 10:47 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.74 | $744.44 |
| 10-15 20:07 | Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.05 |
| 09-26 01:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.431 | $16.81 |
| 09-16 04:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.18 |
| 09-16 04:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.01 | $6.46 |
| 09-16 03:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.009 | $94.31 |
| 09-15 19:06 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $339.85 |