realjappy
0x4a6ed394bcccabfa9cd0ca2f9b808401cabe4916
- Realised P&L
- $0.00
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $988.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.085 | $988.00 | −$476.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.17at 0.6702026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- +$0.00at 0.250Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
- +$-111.30at 0.150Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 02:39 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | SELL | 0.25 | $334.00 |
| 11-01 02:27 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.1 | $222.60 |
| 10-30 22:44 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.25 | $334.00 |
| 10-30 21:51 | Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.15 | $20.25 |
| 10-30 21:51 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.7 | $1.6k |
| 10-29 03:40 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6699999997 | $1.5k |