Augustinef
0x4a3248fdfe91cdceaac030ce894c88ea7ce5311d
- Realised P&L
- $46.09
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $71.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? · Yes | 0.520 | 1.000 | $52.00 | +$24.96 |
| Spread: Patriots (-5.5) · Steelers | 0.520 | 0.515 | $19.05 | −$0.18 |
| Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs · Team Resilience | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.60 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs · Aurora Gaming | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.26 |
| Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$323.70at 0.500Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?
- +$310.63at 0.500Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
- +$151.28at 0.500Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$95.84at 0.500Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series?
- +$82.99at 0.500Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:41 | Spread: Patriots (-5.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $19.24 |
| 08-24 06:17 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | BUY | 0.52 | $27.04 |
| 08-17 07:07 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.38 | $10.26 |
| 08-04 07:12 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs | BUY | 0.44 | $28.60 |
| 07-22 02:09 | Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group B | BUY | 0.36 | $9.36 |
| 07-09 12:26 | UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.43 | $24.51 |
| 06-11 09:28 | Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 06-11 09:27 | Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | BUY | 0.75 | $33.15 |
| 06-09 12:15 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $28.96 |
| 06-09 12:15 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.00 |
| 06-09 12:14 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 05-23 08:23 | Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? | BUY | 0.52 | $18.51 |
| 05-07 09:48 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? | BUY | 0.21 | $11.55 |
| 04-07 12:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 04-07 12:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |