laisebr
0x4a2d21b4fc0183ef509796c78e3233bbf217ca62
- Realised P&L
- $-11.03
- Volume
- $240.69
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $4.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.530 | $1.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.385 | $1.37 | −$0.48 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.155 | $1.06 | +$0.03 |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.99 |
| Sharks vs. Canadiens · Canadiens | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.21 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.48 |
| Spurs vs. Hornets · Spurs | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets · Nuggets | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.349 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.42 |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets · Rockets | 0.319 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.87at 0.690Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$1.32at 0.547Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- +$1.18at 0.657Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
- +$0.96at 0.630Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$0.91at 0.547Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 07:57 | Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999927 | $1.03 |
| 10-19 07:56 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.11 |
| 09-13 09:50 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 08:32 | Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999037 | $1.13 |
| 08-23 11:41 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 07-03 15:45 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.6499999565 | $2.24 |
| 06-30 16:00 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.89 |
| 06-27 17:42 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.5399999108 | $1.09 |
| 06-23 13:41 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.84 |
| 06-20 14:00 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.6499998805 | $1.36 |
| 05-14 15:36 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.6299998617 | $1.64 |
| 05-07 13:57 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.7729998775 | $1.18 |
| 05-06 13:51 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.4199998758 | $1.42 |
| 05-05 17:58 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays | BUY | 0.5399998565 | $1.58 |
| 03-14 08:16 | Sharks vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.5999999457 | $2.21 |