cryptopuppy
0x4a1cd6d63c60910bd90c4eff289b8ee80a23da2b
- Realised P&L
- $37.29
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $24.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuse launch a token by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.720 | $14.40 | −$1.80 |
| Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.145 | $8.72 | −$1.17 |
| Ostium FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.084 | $0.96 | −$8.16 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 10-16? · No | 0.638 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 3? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.08 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.60 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.15at 0.740FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug?
- +$33.33at 0.667Spread: Brazil (-1.5)
- +$26.42at 0.791Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?
- +$22.08at 0.629Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?
- +$21.30at 0.948Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 06:51 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 07-08 05:13 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $3.64 |
| 06-30 05:20 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.29 |
| 06-30 04:54 | FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.50 |
| 06-29 20:07 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $9.90 |
| 06-29 04:08 | Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.28 |
| 06-29 04:05 | Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.42 |
| 06-29 03:41 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.68 |
| 06-29 03:28 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 06-29 03:27 | Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 06-27 23:13 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 06-27 05:21 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $4.40 |
| 06-27 01:46 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? | BUY | 0.0949725 | $3.80 |
| 06-27 01:46 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? | BUY | 0.0733333333 | $1.10 |
| 06-27 01:44 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.80 |