0x49F206
0x49f206f4fb2210a28af4795e4e0b6532cf0bd7b4
- Realised P&L
- $-38.3k
- Volume
- $10.59M
- Markets traded
- 2,702
- Open portfolio
- $111.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,702
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.6kat 0.650Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$11.8kat 0.331Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$11.0kat 0.163Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$5.8kat 0.070Pistons vs. Magic
- +$4.9kat 0.180Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 06:55 | Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.36 | $5.08 |
| 10-31 20:24 | Oregon State vs. Fresno State: O/U 57.5 | SELL | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 10-31 18:52 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? | SELL | 0.007 | $2.79 |
| 10-31 16:42 | Will Dua Lipa appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | SELL | 0.074 | $1.11 |
| 10-31 15:49 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.97414762 | $1.9k |
| 10-31 15:49 | Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $1.1k |
| 10-31 15:48 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.7 | $8.83 |
| 10-31 03:59 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.01 | $61.34 |
| 10-31 01:55 | Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $236.12 |
| 10-31 01:54 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.8010418937 | $3.6k |
| 10-30 16:25 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.8775009276 | $472.97 |
| 10-30 14:54 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio? | SELL | 0.037 | $12.61 |
| 10-30 14:48 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $201.61 |
| 10-30 00:45 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $570.20 |
| 10-29 21:17 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9830273973 | $1.4k |