0x49F206
0x49f206f4fb2210a28af4795e4e0b6532cf0bd7b4
- Realised P&L
- $-59.2k
- Volume
- $8.70M
- Markets traded
- 1,528
- Open portfolio
- $39.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,528
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.4kat 0.160Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
- +$27.2kat 0.650Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$19.0kat 0.360Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
- +$11.8kat 0.331Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$8.7kat 0.607Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 14:38 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027? | SELL | 0.012 | $3.43 |
| 09-17 14:38 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.98 | $48.99 |
| 09-17 10:02 | Israel military action against Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.0453445479 | $154.51 |
| 09-17 08:17 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.63 | $3.1k |
| 09-15 02:53 | Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.34 | $47.94 |
| 09-15 02:53 | Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.65 | $91.65 |
| 09-12 23:54 | Memphis vs. Boise State: O/U 55.5 | SELL | 0.81 | $74.52 |
| 09-12 15:10 | Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.32 |
| 09-12 03:46 | Will Rick Devens be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 10)? | BUY | 0.7125 | $57.00 |
| 09-11 00:25 | Will VfB Stuttgart reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16? | BUY | 0.5178438662 | $139.30 |
| 09-10 23:58 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $4.00 |
| 09-10 23:58 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $4.00 |
| 09-10 23:58 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $8.00 |
| 09-10 23:58 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.017 | $19.04 |
| 09-09 09:38 | Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $16.20 |