pasteroni
0x49b8961f30d438c00560c2225944cce8d46723a9
- Realised P&L
- $-166.59
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $4.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.39at 0.208Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.928Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
- +$2.00at 0.950Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?
- +$-0.88at 0.151Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-1.04at 0.026Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 16:47 | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.70 |
| 06-02 16:47 | Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.80 |
| 05-16 14:49 | Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 05-16 14:46 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.051 | $19.13 |
| 05-11 10:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | BUY | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 05-11 10:01 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.053 | $6.63 |
| 05-11 09:56 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.054 | $27.00 |
| 05-11 09:55 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.126 | $3.78 |
| 05-07 13:23 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.146 | $4.38 |
| 04-05 12:27 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.95 |
| 04-05 12:27 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.37 |
| 04-05 12:27 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.06 |
| 04-05 12:26 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.34 |
| 04-05 12:26 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.34 |
| 03-27 15:54 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $6.30 |