PolyBot

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Traders

michwill

0x49b0e0b5a80df56a771bc8de430ef06d3df06a3d

Realised P&L
$-14.19
Volume
$3.7k
Markets traded
56
Open portfolio
$32.98

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded56
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No0.9991.000$32.98+$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-23 02:31Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25?BUY0.999$32.97
08-27 09:03Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August 2026?BUY0.999$35.26
07-17 08:45Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?BUY0.997$33.90
06-15 10:00Xi Jinping out by June 30?BUY0.996$79.68
05-13 09:10Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale?BUY0.998$77.84
04-24 01:45Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?BUY0.999$65.93
03-16 08:56Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?BUY0.999$57.60
02-24 12:48Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February?BUY0.996$21.91
02-01 07:17Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?BUY0.999$59.94
01-30 01:52Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?BUY0.995$5.97
01-26 15:06New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY0.997$56.83
12-25 07:56Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?BUY0.999$41.32
11-23 00:56Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?BUY0.977112411$40.38
10-28 09:18Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?BUY0.9699999756$29.47
09-30 10:02TikTok sale announced by September 30?BUY0.9979999978$59.35