michwill
0x49b0e0b5a80df56a771bc8de430ef06d3df06a3d
- Realised P&L
- $-14.19
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $32.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $32.98 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.80at 0.500Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$79.28at 0.500KHL: Salavat Yulaev Ufa vs. Torpedo
- +$1.68at 0.950Will Biden pardon SBF?
- +$1.44at 0.957Fed rate cut by July 31?
- +$0.95at 0.977Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:31 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-27 09:03 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $35.26 |
| 07-17 08:45 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $33.90 |
| 06-15 10:00 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $79.68 |
| 05-13 09:10 | Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? | BUY | 0.998 | $77.84 |
| 04-24 01:45 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $65.93 |
| 03-16 08:56 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $57.60 |
| 02-24 12:48 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? | BUY | 0.996 | $21.91 |
| 02-01 07:17 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $59.94 |
| 01-30 01:52 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.97 |
| 01-26 15:06 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $56.83 |
| 12-25 07:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $41.32 |
| 11-23 00:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | BUY | 0.977112411 | $40.38 |
| 10-28 09:18 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | BUY | 0.9699999756 | $29.47 |
| 09-30 10:02 | TikTok sale announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999978 | $59.35 |