zarathoustra
0x49ae2066d84a70bb4c39a35f1b87cf2e75f3617a
- Realised P&L
- $-180.40
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $107.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · No | 0.259 | 0.150 | $42.94 | −$31.06 |
| Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.130 | $41.13 | +$7.13 |
| Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.171 | 0.025 | $17.16 | −$100.03 |
| Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.003 | $3.99 | −$6.91 |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.142 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.025 | $0.87 | −$9.13 |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens · Canadiens | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.64at 0.133Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$3.27at 0.545Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
- +$1.67at 0.750US strike on Mexico by March 31?
- +$1.31at 0.500Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.96at 0.015Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 19:19 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $2.05 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $0.94 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.922 | $0.98 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.15 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.877 | $4.92 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.801 | $11.13 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.89 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.13 |
| 07-11 19:19 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.954 | $1.42 |
| 05-20 23:51 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999656 | $4.00 |
| 05-20 23:51 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 05-20 23:50 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 05-19 23:41 | Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.1299999879 | $9.00 |
| 05-19 23:41 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.237 | $8.91 |
| 05-17 18:11 | Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |