0x499708456C4d6f4c8413e8B1B44ffA81B83De928-1770813824372
0x499708456c4d6f4c8413e8b1b44ffa81b83de928
- Realised P&L
- $-245.57
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $41.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.669 | 0.161 | $23.98 | −$76.02 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.065 | $17.61 | −$23.02 |
| Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET · Up | 0.255 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET · Down | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET · Down | 0.201 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.81 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET · Up | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$222.39at 0.055Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$195.29at 0.170US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$106.94at 0.378Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
- +$30.21at 0.206Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
- +$15.21at 0.384Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 22:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2546024227 | $25.00 |
| 05-12 22:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | BUY | 0.1899999944 | $25.00 |
| 05-12 22:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 05-02 07:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | BUY | 0.1956680633 | $16.81 |
| 05-02 07:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | BUY | 0.206060996 | $20.00 |
| 04-02 13:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $8.68 |
| 04-02 12:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $8.70 |
| 04-02 12:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | BUY | 0.059999989 | $4.32 |
| 04-02 12:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.1180939445 | $4.37 |
| 04-02 12:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $8.98 |
| 04-01 12:02 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.50 |
| 03-31 10:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $8.69 |
| 03-30 10:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | BUY | 0.13 | $1.29 |
| 03-28 23:07 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3009716667 | $95.71 |
| 03-28 05:56 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2380863807 | $40.00 |