0x499584a525419115e4f317ffb9f317d64ae4fe78
0x499584a525419115e4f317ffb9f317d64ae4fe78
- Realised P&L
- $-2.85
- Volume
- $32.39
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $3.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.795 | $3.41 | +$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.05at 0.757Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
- +$-0.64at 0.680US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$-3.26at 0.430Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 17:10 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999534 | $3.26 |
| 09-12 09:47 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.4299999631 | $3.26 |
| 09-10 20:07 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7499999425 | $3.26 |
| 09-10 10:33 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.6 | $4.85 |
| 09-08 09:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6799999407 | $5.50 |