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0x49938b954e0694d718d06c48c893a84dd1ddbead
- Realised P&L
- $-108.71
- Volume
- $6.6k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $30.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.320 | $19.20 | −$11.40 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.029 | $11.40 | −$80.60 |
| Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$210.00at 0.650Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?
- +$92.02at 0.258Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?
- +$37.29at 0.670Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
- +$-10.95at 0.040Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
- +$-16.27at 0.057Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 22:30 | Will Claude Sonnet 5.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.0047727597 | $5.09 |
| 09-27 21:09 | Will Claude Sonnet 5.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1675 | $26.80 |
| 09-11 23:14 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.40 |
| 09-11 23:14 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.28 |
| 09-11 23:13 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.01024995 | $2.05 |
| 09-09 19:38 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.29 |
| 09-09 14:28 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 09-09 00:55 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $10.50 |
| 09-05 19:21 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 19:19 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.54 | $22.00 |
| 09-05 17:50 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.055 | $15.95 |
| 09-05 17:38 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.38 | $4.94 |
| 09-04 14:32 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.80 |