0x498d2...
0x498d2c229b37bf35116281bddbe484d7e1b6ddd4
- Realised P&L
- $898.31
- Volume
- $270.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $79.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.9kat 0.341Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$6.9kat 0.717Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$6.8kat 0.434Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
- +$1.0kat 0.849Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
- +$300.00at 0.850Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 22:47 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.11 | $2.8k |
| 10-31 22:08 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.109992 | $2.7k |
| 10-31 20:49 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.11 | $5.5k |
| 10-31 18:58 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3391597896 | $2.5k |
| 10-31 18:57 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.328 | $146.16 |
| 10-31 18:28 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.0k |
| 10-31 11:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.8k |
| 10-31 11:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.53855408 | $8.1k |
| 10-31 11:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.3974683 | $2.0k |
| 10-31 11:20 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.14 | $21.0k |
| 10-29 12:09 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.5k |
| 10-29 09:03 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.76 |
| 10-27 19:37 | Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.302222454 | $637.45 |
| 10-27 00:23 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.84 | $504.00 |
| 10-27 00:02 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.8996462732 | $354.97 |