revanchist
0x498abb90c40df06537c614dc97f78935317a5e7b
- Realised P&L
- $-8.1k
- Volume
- $163.6k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.516 | 0.405 | $4.1k | −$1.1k |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? · No | 0.646 | 0.930 | $1.9k | +$567.91 |
| Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? · No | 0.153 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$236.47 |
| Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$239.84 |
| Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$641.83 |
| Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$397.87 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.438 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$601.72at 0.110Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$587.65at 0.443Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?
- +$529.21at 0.788Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during the State of the Union address?
- +$349.08at 0.651Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's State of the Union?
- +$252.76at 0.747Will Trump say "Dell" during the State of the Union address?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-24 14:53 | Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | SELL | 0.120312 | $300.78 |
| 06-24 14:52 | Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | SELL | 0.114926792 | $287.32 |
| 06-24 14:50 | Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | SELL | 0.1308568494 | $330.02 |
| 06-24 02:18 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $110.00 |
| 06-24 02:11 | Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | SELL | 0.172431812 | $1.7k |
| 05-20 16:24 | Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.0025612387 | $2.82 |
| 05-20 16:23 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.36 | $98.35 |
| 05-20 16:22 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.237 | $115.05 |
| 05-20 16:21 | Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.7657047188 | $123.49 |
| 05-20 16:19 | Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.50 |
| 05-20 16:17 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.037334591 | $373.35 |
| 05-20 16:16 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.95 | $142.50 |
| 05-17 04:15 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.48 | $960.00 |
| 05-17 04:14 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.48 | $960.00 |
| 05-17 04:07 | Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | BUY | 0.11106653 | $555.33 |