mikka101
0x4985153fc851f9dcfdaa5021a533e8f0dcff28bd
- Realised P&L
- $35.2k
- Volume
- $1.30M
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $36.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.7kat 0.255Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$10.0kat 0.523Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
- +$5.9kat 0.388World Championships: Canada vs. Finland
- +$4.7kat 0.378Will the next Pope be from Europe?
- +$4.0kat 0.400Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:27 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 09-17 20:27 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.61 | $208.39 |
| 09-17 20:17 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.6279617011 | $2.7k |
| 09-17 17:39 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.994 | $3.0k |
| 09-17 17:37 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.993 | $89.92 |
| 09-17 17:28 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.992 | $24.8k |
| 07-04 17:25 | Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-04 17:24 | Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians? | BUY | 0.9986878512 | $319.94 |
| 07-03 12:21 | Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency? | BUY | 0.9809516226 | $1.7k |
| 07-03 12:15 | Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians? | BUY | 0.99 | $933.08 |
| 07-03 12:14 | Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians? | BUY | 0.9794449385 | $656.47 |
| 06-22 14:24 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.1k |
| 06-22 01:10 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.997 | $432.01 |
| 06-17 17:54 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.997 | $930.53 |
| 06-17 17:51 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | BUY | 0.995 | $592.30 |