PolyBot

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Traders

mikka101

0x4985153fc851f9dcfdaa5021a533e8f0dcff28bd

Realised P&L
$35.2k
Volume
$1.30M
Markets traded
90
Open portfolio
$36.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded90
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.9920.995$28.0k+$78.20
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.7110.585$8.6k$1.8k
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars? · No0.0560.000$0.00$287.57
Will Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00$277.64
Will "Hamnet" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? · No0.1180.000$0.00$124.54
Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? · No0.5500.000$0.00$208.45
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$56.64
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia · Denmark0.3500.000$0.00$881.45
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? · Yes0.6530.000$0.00$9.6k
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants · Lucknow Super Giants0.4590.000$0.00$1.3k
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No0.7110.000$0.00$5.0k
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-23? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00$58.40
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) · Fluminense0.2500.000$0.00$2.0k
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00$26.00
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00$161.73

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 20:27Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.61$6.10
09-17 20:27Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.61$208.39
09-17 20:17Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.6279617011$2.7k
09-17 17:39Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.994$3.0k
09-17 17:37Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.993$89.92
09-17 17:28Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.992$24.8k
07-04 17:25Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?BUY0.998$99.80
07-04 17:24Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians?BUY0.9986878512$319.94
07-03 12:21Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?BUY0.9809516226$1.7k
07-03 12:15Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians?BUY0.99$933.08
07-03 12:14Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians?BUY0.9794449385$656.47
06-22 14:24Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?BUY0.995$1.1k
06-22 01:10Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?BUY0.997$432.01
06-17 17:54Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?BUY0.997$930.53
06-17 17:51Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?BUY0.995$592.30