0x498443c56b7a07470a844378d22a8e5d27601c54
0x498443c56b7a07470a844378d22a8e5d27601c54
- Realised P&L
- $20.60
- Volume
- $348.62
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $6.81
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.770 | $2.38 | +$0.09 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? · No | 0.750 | 0.800 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.695 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? · No | 0.450 | 0.385 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.195 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.175 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.60at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$7.60at 0.237Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$7.18at 0.247Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
- +$7.18at 0.247WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 17?
- +$5.82at 0.288Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 06:20 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:01 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:44 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 12:31 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:16 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 25? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 05:42 | Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.2399999916 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 21:41 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in September? | BUY | 0.7399999741 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 13:29 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999915 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 05:28 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999741 | $2.29 |
| 09-23 05:19 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999804 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 07:30 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.29 |
| 09-18 20:30 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.6699998917 | $2.29 |
| 09-18 11:23 | Will Trump say "Failing Country" or "Failing Nation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.4399999539 | $2.29 |
| 09-17 21:39 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on September 18? | BUY | 0.2699999835 | $2.29 |