0x497B4c6496845Dc10E1Fa57AEaE2bd0C9980717E-1772220119566
0x497b4c6496845dc10e1fa57aeae2bd0c9980717e
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $422.9k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.566 | 0.875 | $3.9k | +$1.4k |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.850 | $627.24 | +$351.65 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.295 | $536.36 | +$336.37 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.322 | 0.049 | $68.54 | −$386.03 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.790 | $60.78 | +$20.78 |
| Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? · Up | 0.777 | 0.905 | $34.96 | +$4.96 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.045 | $4.02 | −$30.48 |
| Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.30 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.410S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13?
- +$1.3kat 0.430US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
- +$909.30at 0.842Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$906.75at 0.430Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
- +$613.75at 0.435Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 16:11 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5656025308 | $2.5k |
| 06-17 18:34 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.4799999983 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 21:20 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2450980392 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 15:04 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6699999998 | $500.00 |
| 06-15 23:07 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.6699999998 | $500.00 |
| 06-13 23:25 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.36 | $496.55 |
| 06-13 01:04 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5799999997 | $800.00 |
| 06-10 18:01 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.6999999995 | $300.00 |
| 06-08 23:17 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2288557135 | $20.00 |
| 06-08 23:15 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.6899999997 | $500.00 |
| 06-02 22:37 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.008991977 | $8.30 |
| 05-27 23:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | SELL | 0.7546188124 | $2.2k |
| 05-24 14:04 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $372.23 |
| 05-21 15:47 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $760.00 |
| 05-19 18:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999995 | $200.00 |