0x495DE7bB43A262cb5458A5C555de6a7973feB73b-1771791588214
0x495de7bb43a262cb5458a5c555de6a7973feb73b
- Realised P&L
- $4.15
- Volume
- $390.11
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $56.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.480 | $24.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.330 | $16.50 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by October 31? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.815 | $16.30 | +$0.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET · Up | 0.558 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET · Up | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.60at 0.460Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron by October 31?
- +$0.84at 0.893Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
- +$0.26at 0.786Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
- +$0.16at 0.916Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
- +$0.09at 0.921Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 22:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 02-22 22:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $2.16 |
| 02-22 22:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 02-22 22:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 02-22 22:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.26 |
| 02-22 21:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $0.99 |
| 02-22 21:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 02-22 21:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | BUY | 0.55 | $0.97 |
| 02-22 20:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $7.82 |
| 02-22 20:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 02-22 20:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | BUY | 0.71 | $1.96 |