MarcianoTech
0x495b69ab274086ede11af9e222d51563ca8a47b6
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $28.7k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.614 | 0.690 | $882.49 | +$97.55 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · No | 0.442 | 0.375 | $221.20 | −$39.79 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.357 | 0.401 | $112.22 | +$12.22 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.155 | $3.04 | −$6.96 |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.002 | $1.15 | −$8.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET · Down | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.48 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET · Up | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$86.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET · Down | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$491.65at 0.289Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$305.98at 0.6885kt meteor strike in 2025?
- +$141.04at 0.727First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Dominican Rep.
- +$98.23at 0.490Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
- +$53.36at 0.390Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 13:28 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.3922338429 | $14.63 |
| 08-24 13:26 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $14.14 |
| 08-20 17:32 | Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5695 | $170.85 |
| 08-15 16:33 | Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5199999983 | $100.00 |
| 08-14 00:20 | Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5614487592 | $300.00 |
| 08-06 20:25 | Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 20:24 | Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8970151773 | $200.00 |
| 07-02 23:29 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 07-02 23:19 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 07-02 13:43 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 06-20 01:36 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.4234367075 | $10.00 |
| 06-20 01:34 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.963 | $98.23 |
| 06-20 01:30 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 06-03 00:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 00:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |