rocketman1989
0x495165eafef9fddfc64296f479df44fefeea42e3
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $79.6k
- Markets traded
- 197
- Open portfolio
- $44.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded197
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.380 | $44.81 | −$4.72 |
| Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.87 |
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.53 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.92 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.75 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.279 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$111.45 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$97.50 |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.958 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.69 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · No | 0.252 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$354.00at 0.410Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-29?
- +$325.95at 0.220Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?
- +$152.00at 0.620Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?
- +$150.88at 0.570Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-09?
- +$139.93at 0.387Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 17:58 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.65 | $97.50 |
| 06-14 09:27 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.945 | $203.17 |
| 06-11 16:20 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.7 | $105.00 |
| 06-08 11:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.194 | $13.77 |
| 05-31 18:05 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 05-15 08:57 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.981 | $294.30 |
| 05-15 08:40 | Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.952 | $71.40 |
| 05-15 08:37 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $13.69 |
| 05-09 18:03 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? | SELL | 0.98 | $137.20 |
| 05-09 14:40 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? | BUY | 0.71 | $99.40 |
| 04-25 15:43 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? | BUY | 0.84112 | $41.66 |
| 04-07 19:39 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | SELL | 0.6 | $240.00 |
| 03-28 18:44 | Spurs vs. Bucks | BUY | 0.07 | $14.00 |
| 03-25 15:19 | Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.42 | $97.81 |
| 03-24 12:25 | Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $76.00 |