FluffyMD2026
0x491f0e7ca43a717e72346b37146c0ed3f9b5c959
- Realised P&L
- $9.8k
- Volume
- $114.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $9.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.295 | $4.4k | +$25.11 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.195 | $2.8k | −$198.88 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.255 | $1.3k | +$25.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.070 | 0.055 | $550.00 | −$150.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET · Down | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET · Up | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET · Up | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET · Up | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.2kat 0.319Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$24.13at 0.517Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
- +$-13.34at 0.366Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
- +$-25.37at 0.802Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
- +$-25.79at 0.567Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 08:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | BUY | 0.7599999964 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 22:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999939 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999934 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 15:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5299999924 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 15:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | SELL | 0.19 | $13.57 |
| 10-31 15:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999972 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 15:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999976 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 15:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999976 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 15:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 13:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | BUY | 0.3837827178 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 13:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | BUY | 0.7899999956 | $25.00 |
| 10-31 13:21 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2088451905 | $3.0k |
| 10-31 13:20 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.993 | $3.6k |
| 10-30 12:05 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9928707581 | $13.3k |
| 10-28 20:42 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.996 | $4.5k |