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0x48fe8fa8872b73e61307b0df1a7329e8db21e6e4
- Realised P&L
- $7.0k
- Volume
- $460.6k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $645.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.145 | $464.00 | −$144.00 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.862 | 0.865 | $91.04 | +$0.30 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.700 | $79.69 | +$25.04 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.486 | 0.495 | $6.43 | +$0.12 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.045 | $2.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.140 | $1.68 | −$0.48 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.16 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.65 |
| Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$104.50 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.512 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.1kat 0.220Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.736US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$707.43at 0.732Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
- +$624.81at 0.490Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$586.32at 0.580Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 11:22 | Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $100.00 |
| 06-17 16:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 06-14 20:21 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.4599999968 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 19:15 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999998 | $2.1k |
| 05-09 06:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.2k |
| 02-17 00:08 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.1k |
| 12-10 12:35 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | SELL | 0.9512543869 | $550.78 |
| 10-25 19:22 | Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.11 | $104.50 |