0x48fc9709a36f8a5028fc1ee6f9cccaa10ba5533c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $28.0k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $374.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? · Yes | 0.454 | 0.800 | $176.33 | +$76.33 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.348 | 0.360 | $103.46 | +$3.46 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.105 | $75.00 | −$25.00 |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.056 | $20.18 | +$0.18 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET · Down | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.83at 0.339Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$94.82at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$51.43at 0.280Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$51.17at 0.672Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
- +$50.29at 0.280Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 07:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 07:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | SELL | 0.55 | $24.44 |
| 09-13 07:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4499999944 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 07:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $22.02 |
| 09-13 07:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 06:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | SELL | 0.9557446809 | $44.92 |
| 09-13 06:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 06:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | SELL | 0.97 | $22.29 |
| 09-13 06:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | BUY | 0.87 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 06:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $23.85 |
| 09-13 06:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 05:30 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0549999999 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 05:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $24.75 |
| 09-12 05:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 05:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $20.00 |