luffy168
0x48e15a3d36d48875a2ad4ceb5f34f11656987675
- Realised P&L
- $68.91
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $631.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.798 | 0.915 | $275.06 | +$35.06 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET · Up | 0.706 | 1.000 | $219.78 | +$64.53 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET · Up | 0.661 | 1.000 | $135.04 | +$45.80 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET · Down | 0.557 | 1.000 | $1.70 | +$0.75 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET · Down | 0.432 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.95 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? · No | 0.634 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET · Down | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 October 20-26? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET · Down | 0.162 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET · Down | 0.591 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET · Down | 0.383 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$269.19at 0.714Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$116.24at 0.896Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$100.60at 0.880Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$33.10at 0.858Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$15.79at 0.559Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-25 09:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $99.14 |
| 04-25 09:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8700587079 | $98.13 |
| 04-25 09:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.8136777228 | $97.32 |
| 04-25 09:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $9.58 |
| 04-25 09:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5699998233 | $0.94 |
| 01-31 05:53 | Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9790544226 | $100.00 |
| 01-31 05:51 | Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9756487654 | $20.00 |
| 01-31 05:50 | Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.976 | $50.00 |
| 01-31 03:43 | Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.991 | $500.00 |
| 01-30 20:27 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 01-30 20:26 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.00 |
| 01-30 20:11 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7907052597 | $20.00 |
| 01-30 20:10 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 01-28 09:13 | Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.952 | $100.00 |
| 01-28 09:12 | Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9509999908 | $100.00 |