1806kmw24t0s
0x48d457e5d9152773f332d680be4042202648c5f8
- Realised P&L
- $-19.92
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $119.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026? · No | 0.905 | 0.860 | $23.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.532 | 0.405 | $19.01 | −$5.99 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.900 | $18.92 | −$0.42 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · No | 0.749 | 0.880 | $17.61 | +$2.61 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.635 | $13.23 | −$1.77 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? · Yes | 0.794 | 0.330 | $12.27 | −$17.24 |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.825 | $7.14 | +$1.60 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.350 | $7.14 | −$2.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.33at 0.670Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-In
- +$14.10at 0.780Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Qualifier Playoffs
- +$12.86at 0.700Iran coup attempt by June 30?
- +$10.86at 0.420Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
- +$10.68at 0.527Will England win on 2026-07-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 18:44 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9057685665 | $5.24 |
| 08-02 18:44 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $0.03 |
| 08-01 06:39 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5325821865 | $25.00 |
| 07-07 22:04 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4969999985 | $25.00 |
| 07-07 21:49 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $6.62 |
| 07-07 21:48 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $1.49 |
| 07-07 21:45 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $4.94 |
| 07-07 21:02 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $0.43 |
| 07-07 19:54 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $1.09 |
| 07-07 19:50 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.97 |
| 07-05 15:49 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $0.01 |
| 07-05 15:49 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $0.01 |
| 07-05 15:49 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $0.01 |
| 07-04 14:03 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999915 | $15.00 |
| 07-04 07:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on July 4? | SELL | 0.51 | $22.56 |