feijilaile
0x48ba638adeb9f3b6d1200b2d83f4bf865446ff74
- Realised P&L
- $7.46
- Volume
- $24.4k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $15.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.945 | $4.82 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.855 | $4.36 | −$0.48 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.755 | $3.85 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.555 | $2.83 | −$0.03 |
| TikTok sale announced by September 30? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.05at 0.500Will Trump say "Rogan" during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?
- +$1.22at 0.770Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$0.78at 0.880Will Barcelona win La Liga?
- +$0.49at 0.910Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?
- +$0.47at 0.945Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 08:04 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.86 |
| 09-20 08:04 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.84 |
| 09-20 08:03 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.88 |
| 09-20 08:02 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.84 |
| 08-26 15:19 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.05 |
| 08-26 15:19 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 08-26 15:18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.91 |
| 08-15 16:32 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.956 | $4.88 |
| 07-17 01:16 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.08 |
| 07-17 01:15 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.10 |
| 06-21 02:11 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.89 |
| 05-31 02:52 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.27 |
| 05-31 02:50 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.93 |
| 05-31 02:49 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $5.27 |
| 05-19 07:53 | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY | 0.77 | $4.07 |