PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

unworthy

0x48b9985ddda45a8a497812cc15fd3577b444c693

Realised P&L
$691.88
Volume
$7.8k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$1.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar8.9%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration71.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No0.7730.805$494.41+$19.60
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9100.980$430.32+$30.32
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.8700.983$112.99+$12.99
New Anthropic model released before IPO? · Yes0.8070.880$108.98+$8.98
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? · Yes0.7720.785$101.67+$1.67
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? · No0.4900.000$0.00−$50.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 07:37Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO?BUY0.7720930215$100.00
10-29 07:36New Anthropic model released before IPO?BUY0.807507104$100.00
10-06 06:51Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?SELL0.71$390.50
05-26 05:48Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6975654957$100.00
05-19 02:35Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8188730729$100.00
05-14 14:37Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.846466847$300.00
05-08 15:37New pandemic in 2026?BUY0.8699999957$100.00
05-08 15:25Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY0.9069999999$200.00
05-07 20:43Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?SELL0.638$50.10
05-07 20:43Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?SELL0.24$54.54
05-07 20:17Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?BUY0.9139999981$200.00
05-04 14:25Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?BUY0.2199999968$50.00
05-04 14:25Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.6366634227$50.00
04-19 10:45Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8099999993$200.00
01-01 23:16Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6725726335$200.00