unworthy
0x48b9985ddda45a8a497812cc15fd3577b444c693
- Realised P&L
- $691.88
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.773 | 0.805 | $494.41 | +$19.60 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.980 | $430.32 | +$30.32 |
| New pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.983 | $112.99 | +$12.99 |
| New Anthropic model released before IPO? · Yes | 0.807 | 0.880 | $108.98 | +$8.98 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? · Yes | 0.772 | 0.785 | $101.67 | +$1.67 |
| Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$605.81at 0.630Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?
- +$94.66at 0.732US recession in 2025?
- +$57.14at 0.840Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
- +$53.14at 0.661Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
- +$24.45at 0.891Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 07:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? | BUY | 0.7720930215 | $100.00 |
| 10-29 07:36 | New Anthropic model released before IPO? | BUY | 0.807507104 | $100.00 |
| 10-06 06:51 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $390.50 |
| 05-26 05:48 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6975654957 | $100.00 |
| 05-19 02:35 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8188730729 | $100.00 |
| 05-14 14:37 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.846466847 | $300.00 |
| 05-08 15:37 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999957 | $100.00 |
| 05-08 15:25 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9069999999 | $200.00 |
| 05-07 20:43 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.638 | $50.10 |
| 05-07 20:43 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $54.54 |
| 05-07 20:17 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9139999981 | $200.00 |
| 05-04 14:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999968 | $50.00 |
| 05-04 14:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.6366634227 | $50.00 |
| 04-19 10:45 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $200.00 |
| 01-01 23:16 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6725726335 | $200.00 |