0x48B7f5DD6Ffc9F23B2674Df638672203f9d25aD1-1780525749286
0x48b7f5dd6ffc9f23b2674df638672203f9d25ad1
- Realised P&L
- $19.28
- Volume
- $488.98
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $41.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? · No | 0.406 | 0.350 | $17.24 | −$2.76 |
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · No | 0.350 | 0.345 | $12.31 | −$0.18 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.290 | 0.290 | $12.00 | +$0.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET · Down | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.96at 0.470Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?
- +$11.12at 0.396Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
- +$6.51at 0.547Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
- +$5.79at 0.517Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
- +$5.10at 0.612NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 22:39 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.349999993 | $12.49 |
| 09-15 22:37 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.2899999954 | $12.00 |
| 09-15 22:01 | Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? | BUY | 0.4059405914 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 20:42 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? | SELL | 0.99 | $45.67 |
| 08-22 19:12 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200? | BUY | 0.4299999927 | $11.24 |
| 08-22 00:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 23:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999966 | $6.00 |
| 08-21 23:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999716 | $7.00 |
| 08-21 23:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $7.00 |
| 08-21 23:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999541 | $4.00 |
| 08-21 23:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | SELL | 0.14 | $0.69 |
| 08-21 23:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999816 | $2.50 |
| 08-21 23:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | SELL | 0.7 | $4.51 |
| 08-21 23:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | BUY | 0.619999969 | $4.00 |
| 08-21 23:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999587 | $4.00 |