0x489cd27dd7e4c046c93b3126a3f0faf0681b5f0a
- Realised P&L
- $1.67
- Volume
- $66.91
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $2.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 15? · Down | 0.490 | 1.000 | $2.04 | +$1.04 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.585 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $197.50 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.080 | $0.13 | −$0.88 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.510 | 0.005 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
- +$1.15at 0.470Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.80at 0.560Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.669Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 03:37 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 19:18 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $197.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:15 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 22:28 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 18:31 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 11:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 23:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 09:43 | Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.2919998388 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 04:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 07:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 04:20 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $78 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 04:13 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-17 01:14 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 17 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-16 13:48 | Will Kohls (KSS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.42 |
| 08-14 21:35 | Will Kohls (KSS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |