0x4898983efe0daeb8f6bbcafcc9f90aebb3d8e66b
0x4898983efe0daeb8f6bbcafcc9f90aebb3d8e66b
- Realised P&L
- $-96.22
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $2.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.004 | $1.50 | +$0.50 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.031 | $1.03 | −$1.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.25at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.94at 0.100Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.170Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 10?
- +$-0.23at 0.860Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 18:36 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | BUY | 0.1799999909 | $15.00 |
| 05-04 19:34 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 03-03 13:04 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.03 | $15.00 |
| 02-28 23:41 | Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | SELL | 0.1094 | $10.94 |
| 02-28 23:41 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.76 |
| 02-26 11:41 | Will JD Vance say "Six Seven" in Wisconsin on Thursday? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 02-23 20:32 | US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.0225150266 | $2.00 |
| 02-20 23:28 | Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 02-16 19:50 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 19:48 | Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 19:42 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $5.29 |
| 02-16 19:42 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $8.33 |
| 02-02 21:43 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $2.81 |
| 01-23 21:33 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999289 | $3.00 |
| 01-14 12:23 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |