0x488459512c3a768b1f9a34674fd0bda3510764bb
0x488459512c3a768b1f9a34674fd0bda3510764bb
- Realised P&L
- $65.13
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $27.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on September 23? · No | 0.990 | 1.000 | $20.58 | +$0.20 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.260 | $5.20 | −$0.40 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.076 | $1.52 | −$2.28 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.48at 0.976Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$8.01at 0.951Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?
- +$7.48at 0.976Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.80at 0.987Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.17at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 03:00 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.99 | $20.38 |
| 09-22 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9750113558 | $594.00 |
| 09-22 01:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.995934219 | $599.40 |
| 09-21 17:06 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $599.40 |
| 09-21 13:27 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.9087636148 | $9.50 |
| 09-21 12:57 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.9199999961 | $9.50 |
| 09-21 10:51 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.98 | $149.49 |
| 09-21 09:22 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.9675405347 | $149.49 |
| 09-21 04:50 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9977544549 | $599.40 |
| 09-20 07:01 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.93 |
| 09-20 06:02 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.9949660709 | $149.85 |
| 09-20 06:00 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $149.85 |
| 09-20 05:32 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.45 |
| 09-20 05:01 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $103.39 |
| 09-20 04:52 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.54 |