europeanPilchard
0x488302f499444006af96438ab91037f6c199a66c
- Realised P&L
- $-0.33
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $4.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? · Yes | 0.995 | 1.000 | $2.64 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 17? · Yes | 0.990 | 1.000 | $1.80 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.65at 0.429Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07?
- +$2.54at 0.600Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
- +$2.00at 0.550Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?
- +$1.60at 0.600Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
- +$1.58at 0.730Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 16:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.78 |
| 10-15 16:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.995 | $2.63 |
| 08-29 05:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.73 |
| 08-29 05:41 | Will Solana reach $140 in August? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.75 |
| 08-22 19:29 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9659999928 | $2.41 |
| 08-12 20:03 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 10-16? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.32 |
| 08-12 20:01 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 10-16? | BUY | 0.9809999969 | $2.55 |
| 08-05 01:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.9779997878 | $2.24 |
| 08-05 01:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.9919997262 | $2.84 |
| 07-29 23:27 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999992 | $2.63 |
| 07-24 22:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9859999237 | $2.61 |
| 07-24 22:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9909999973 | $1.49 |
| 07-09 23:57 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Switzerland? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |
| 07-09 23:56 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Switzerland? | BUY | 0.9589999937 | $4.09 |
| 07-02 14:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 3? | BUY | 0.9939999991 | $4.19 |