PolyBot

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Traders

WildManul

0x4861333e81d6a0834a241962c83808bd07c89acf

Realised P&L
$-3.2k
Volume
$184.7k
Markets traded
2,983
Open portfolio
$917.61

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,983
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
Not knownProfit concentration—
No settled positions sampled.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.7500.735$359.42−$7.33
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat? · No0.7300.725$163.74−$1.13
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · Yes0.3600.330$99.60−$9.05
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? · No0.7600.745$82.22−$1.66
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · No0.1000.085$38.42−$6.78
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No0.7300.715$35.75−$0.75
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · Yes0.6800.610$30.50−$3.50
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30? · No0.5600.520$26.00−$2.00
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? · No0.4400.435$21.75−$0.25
US imports Russian diesel by January 31? · No0.3600.325$16.25−$1.75
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.1600.153$15.35−$0.65
Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat? · No0.0470.037$6.90−$1.75
Luke Campbell arrested by December 31? · Yes0.2300.032$6.43−$40.49
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat? · Yes0.1200.115$5.74−$0.25
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026? · Yes0.3160.232$2.52−$0.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 23:10Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?SELL0.307$2.79
11-01 22:45US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?SELL0.33$42.87
11-01 21:55Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?SELL0.256$7.68
11-01 21:55Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?SELL0.256$4.68
11-01 20:39Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?SELL0.73$29.46
11-01 20:39Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?SELL0.73$7.04
11-01 20:30Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?SELL0.6083187919$163.15
11-01 19:37Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?SELL0.7$35.00
11-01 19:22Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.13$6.50
11-01 19:20Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?SELL0.69$337.41
11-01 18:59Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?SELL0.58$29.00
11-01 18:37US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?SELL0.72$352.08
11-01 18:25Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?SELL0.87$43.50
11-01 17:28Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?SELL0.14$2.80
11-01 17:28Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?SELL0.14$2.80