PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172

0x485a2e9ad89d9109bb4d37b925ba60f6350421cb

Realised P&L
$-192.0k
Volume
$10.59M
Markets traded
58
Open portfolio
$20.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded58
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample33 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1410.075$13.8k$12.1k
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.0840.055$3.7k$1.9k
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0470.021$1.6k$1.9k
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes0.0360.026$1.2k$410.67
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes0.0700.055$395.12$107.76
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes0.1400.120$108.00$18.00
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$86.61
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$80.00
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00$159.82
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$52.11
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$95.00
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$25.00
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0430.000$0.00$549.41
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00$818.06
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00$6.5k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 16:31Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.09$19.80
08-01 16:30Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.032$323.20
08-01 16:29Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.042$307.29
08-01 16:22Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.14$126.00
08-01 16:22Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.031$10.72
08-01 16:21Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.041$274.14
08-01 16:21Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.07$502.87
07-24 17:45Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.07$20.30
07-24 17:09Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.0419762878$24.13
07-24 17:08Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.034$16.36
07-24 17:06Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.035$27.97
07-24 16:00Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY0.07$12.60
07-24 15:59Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.03$6.00
07-24 15:58Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.032$3.66
07-24 05:27Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.03$23.97