0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172
0x485a2e9ad89d9109bb4d37b925ba60f6350421cb
- Realised P&L
- $-202.1k
- Volume
- $11.15M
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $43.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.089Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.417Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
- +$723.92at 0.543Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?
- +$635.99at 0.300Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
- +$447.65at 0.585Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 17:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $81.90 |
| 08-14 13:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $27.68 |
| 08-09 18:08 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.0498529863 | $84.75 |
| 08-09 18:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.02 | $33.71 |
| 08-09 18:05 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $2.4k |
| 08-09 18:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $10.5k |
| 08-09 18:01 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $485.79 |
| 08-08 13:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 08-08 08:00 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $34.56 |
| 08-07 23:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.0198705958 | $3.10 |
| 08-07 22:30 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $108.00 |
| 08-07 16:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $6.96 |
| 08-07 06:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $693.56 |
| 08-07 06:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.023 | $132.41 |
| 08-07 06:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $13.4k |