0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172
0x485a2e9ad89d9109bb4d37b925ba60f6350421cb
- Realised P&L
- $-192.0k
- Volume
- $10.59M
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $20.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.089Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.409Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
- +$723.92at 0.543Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?
- +$635.99at 0.300Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
- +$447.65at 0.585Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 16:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $19.80 |
| 08-01 16:30 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $323.20 |
| 08-01 16:29 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.042 | $307.29 |
| 08-01 16:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $126.00 |
| 08-01 16:22 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.031 | $10.72 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.041 | $274.14 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $502.87 |
| 07-24 17:45 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $20.30 |
| 07-24 17:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.0419762878 | $24.13 |
| 07-24 17:08 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.034 | $16.36 |
| 07-24 17:06 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.035 | $27.97 |
| 07-24 16:00 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.07 | $12.60 |
| 07-24 15:59 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $6.00 |
| 07-24 15:58 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $3.66 |
| 07-24 05:27 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $23.97 |