secret12
0x4851756873088decbb17724b7bf160c8846b96b3
- Realised P&L
- $-56.71
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $8.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.821 | $8.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET · Down | 0.582 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.91 |
| Will Brighton vs. Brentford end in a draw? · No | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.53at 0.508Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
- +$18.15at 0.560Ducks vs. Capitals
- +$7.83at 0.447Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
- +$7.23at 0.634Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
- +$7.01at 0.406Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 12:15 | Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999886 | $8.00 |
| 05-29 15:34 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.419999994 | $25.00 |
| 05-21 20:14 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999953 | $22.30 |
| 04-23 09:45 | Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? | BUY | 0.82 | $18.34 |
| 02-01 20:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5734831319 | $13.66 |
| 01-31 09:23 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-31? | BUY | 0.8699999922 | $12.25 |
| 01-27 14:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $9.73 |
| 01-20 20:30 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? | SELL | 0.04 | $9.86 |
| 01-20 15:24 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? | BUY | 0.2599999975 | $64.08 |
| 01-19 11:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $31.53 |
| 01-18 18:30 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.625 | $12.16 |
| 01-17 10:59 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | SELL | 0.7349597024 | $23.71 |
| 01-17 10:45 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5430942936 | $17.25 |
| 01-16 20:19 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | SELL | 0.75 | $19.81 |
| 01-16 20:16 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4399999925 | $11.44 |