Timewalker102
0x484a5e8317f1244ce4b0c7304e5e577bcd9ede90
- Realised P&L
- $-228.62
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $87.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.945 | $76.06 | +$10.06 |
| Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.310 | $11.27 | −$5.09 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.401 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.37at 0.462Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$22.47at 0.715Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?
- +$15.43at 0.826Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$6.66at 0.818Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
- +$-0.93at 0.370Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 06:16 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 07-03 06:48 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.57 |
| 07-02 09:57 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4009999938 | $20.00 |
| 07-02 09:52 | Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.0277626369 | $30.00 |
| 06-27 01:37 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.419999994 | $25.00 |
| 06-26 22:55 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.5799475735 | $30.00 |
| 06-09 03:52 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.6339999951 | $25.14 |
| 06-09 03:51 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.82 | $66.00 |
| 06-09 03:47 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.993 | $91.87 |
| 06-03 02:03 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8199999894 | $75.87 |
| 06-03 01:58 | Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election? | BUY | 0.45 | $16.36 |
| 06-03 01:38 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.3539999955 | $25.00 |
| 05-19 03:37 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | SELL | 0.5282299725 | $40.29 |
| 05-08 01:06 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.7399999992 | $56.44 |
| 04-29 13:37 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $25.00 |