cvaaaa
0x4848c2a4e5d25b4c03288c8b9ea2a6b6b9f443de
- Realised P&L
- $0.33
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $6.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.270 | $6.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.07at 0.487Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$0.52at 0.660Will Bitcoin dip to $112K August 4–10?
- +$0.46at 0.520Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$0.42at 0.706Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$0.35at 0.740Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 16:58 | Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.28 | $7.00 |
| 06-12 08:58 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:53 | Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 06-11 13:52 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:07 | Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 12:59 | Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 12-29 13:28 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 02:31 | Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVD | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 02:29 | Democratic sweep? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.03 |
| 09-23 13:40 | Democratic sweep? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 07:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $112K August 4–10? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 07:30 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.93 |
| 07-26 16:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 16:03 | Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.19 |
| 06-28 05:47 | Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |