0x4821388a51df59aab0186e384bfed121447f6810
- Realised P&L
- $0.13
- Volume
- $416.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $92.27
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.56at 0.830Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.34at 0.728Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.05at 0.800Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.07at 0.214Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$-1.66at 0.254Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 15:52 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $6.44 |
| 06-27 21:08 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.07 |
| 06-22 23:59 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $6.75 |
| 06-09 07:57 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $8.10 |
| 06-07 06:11 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.86 |
| 05-24 01:23 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 05-24 01:23 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 05-24 01:22 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 04-25 15:48 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.92 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.487 | $2.44 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.513 | $4.62 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $6.64 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.53 |
| 04-18 00:07 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.64 |