reffi
0x480366abb23a63a7ea28a7a2eec7766621b45134
- Realised P&L
- $837.18
- Volume
- $169.1k
- Markets traded
- 93
- Open portfolio
- $3.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded93
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$946.28at 0.716Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$576.69at 0.390Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$160.00at 0.968Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
- +$105.00at 0.880Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$95.91at 0.660Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 10:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.27 | $549.94 |
| 08-10 10:53 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.63 | $1.6k |
| 04-22 00:15 | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $60.83 |
| 04-20 18:34 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | BUY | 0.66 | $41.49 |
| 04-20 18:33 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.57 | $58.71 |
| 04-18 18:23 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $149.31 |
| 04-11 15:07 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.26 | $312.00 |
| 04-11 12:45 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.25 | $500.00 |
| 04-11 12:02 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.0k |
| 04-09 18:57 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.0k |
| 04-09 00:25 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.0k |
| 04-09 00:05 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.968 | $1.2k |
| 04-01 13:26 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $51.86 |
| 04-01 13:26 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.957 | $8.92 |
| 04-01 13:25 | Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |