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Traders

reffi

0x480366abb23a63a7ea28a7a2eec7766621b45134

Realised P&L
$1.2k
Volume
$169.1k
Markets traded
94
Open portfolio
$3.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded94
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No0.9400.983$1.6k+$69.88
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.9400.956$693.30+$11.60
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8950.984$295.05+$26.55
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.8740.945$216.22+$16.22
ByteDance IPO before 2027? · No0.9550.971$199.28+$3.28
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.9300.972$194.30+$8.30
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1070.100$135.25−$10.19
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.5600.555$129.98−$1.17
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.8800.912$91.20+$3.20
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes0.8300.160$48.74−$204.10
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.9230.159$31.80−$152.88
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes0.4490.390$25.69−$3.86
SBF released from custody in 2026? · No0.8600.985$23.42+$2.96
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · No0.9200.625$21.25−$10.03
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.5500.125$11.25−$38.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 10:52Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.559999999$131.15
11-01 10:50Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?SELL0.703$6.55
08-10 10:53Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.27$549.94
08-10 10:53Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.63$1.6k
04-22 00:15Netanyahu out by April 30?BUY0.993$60.83
04-20 18:34Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?BUY0.66$41.49
04-20 18:33Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?SELL0.57$58.71
04-18 18:23Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY0.79$149.31
04-11 15:07Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?BUY0.26$312.00
04-11 12:45Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?BUY0.25$500.00
04-11 12:02Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?BUY0.98$2.0k
04-09 18:57US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?SELL0.998$2.0k
04-09 00:25US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.996$2.0k
04-09 00:05Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?BUY0.968$1.2k
04-01 13:26Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.94$51.86
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