PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

reffi

0x480366abb23a63a7ea28a7a2eec7766621b45134

Realised P&L
$837.18
Volume
$169.1k
Markets traded
93
Open portfolio
$3.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded93
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No0.9400.966$1.6k+$41.93
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.9400.955$692.57+$10.88
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8950.955$286.50+$18.00
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.8740.895$204.78+$4.78
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.9300.979$195.80+$9.80
ByteDance IPO before 2027? · No0.9550.915$187.99$8.01
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1070.105$143.41$2.04
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes0.8300.375$114.23$138.60
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.8800.895$89.50+$1.50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.9230.161$32.10$152.58
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes0.4490.355$23.39$6.17
SBF released from custody in 2026? · No0.8600.976$23.22+$2.76
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.5500.215$19.35$30.15
Discord IPO before 2027? · Yes0.9130.102$11.11$88.89
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · No0.9200.315$10.71$20.57

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-10 10:53Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.27$549.94
08-10 10:53Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.63$1.6k
04-22 00:15Netanyahu out by April 30?BUY0.993$60.83
04-20 18:34Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?BUY0.66$41.49
04-20 18:33Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?SELL0.57$58.71
04-18 18:23Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY0.79$149.31
04-11 15:07Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?BUY0.26$312.00
04-11 12:45Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?BUY0.25$500.00
04-11 12:02Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?BUY0.98$2.0k
04-09 18:57US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?SELL0.998$2.0k
04-09 00:25US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?BUY0.996$2.0k
04-09 00:05Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?BUY0.968$1.2k
04-01 13:26Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.94$51.86
04-01 13:26Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.957$8.92
04-01 13:25Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.88$88.00