1017
0x47fcb31f631f2e992331fc80d3fb9fb106d7979d
- Realised P&L
- $-24.33
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $79.77
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.315 | $69.48 | −$58.52 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.655 | 0.075 | $8.02 | −$61.98 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.095 | $2.27 | −$8.73 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.85at 0.140Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
- +$47.30at 0.045Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
- +$45.44at 0.248Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?
- +$25.26at 0.190Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$24.37at 0.1402024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 15:38 | Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0379999971 | $13.00 |
| 05-28 09:23 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0939999968 | $24.00 |
| 04-01 07:07 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.475291314 | $15.00 |
| 03-11 00:36 | Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3099999888 | $18.00 |
| 02-07 03:19 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.7299999965 | $55.00 |
| 01-12 04:37 | Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6769230769 | $110.00 |
| 01-07 06:01 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999866 | $11.00 |
| 12-08 05:30 | Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | BUY | 0.4199999906 | $17.00 |
| 10-31 11:37 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | BUY | 0.7499999489 | $11.00 |
| 10-04 03:07 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | SELL | 0.67 | $35.26 |
| 10-04 03:07 | Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $12.00 |
| 07-05 04:21 | Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? | BUY | 0.2481708402 | $15.00 |
| 06-13 01:04 | Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open? | BUY | 0.145514943 | $15.00 |
| 06-13 01:01 | Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.81 | $57.85 |
| 05-09 03:00 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |