weatherBear
0x47e9c1e3a3d7aa76b22b13d5ebd46d82ddac732c
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $1.07M
- Markets traded
- 6,769
- Open portfolio
- $253.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,769
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.44at 0.988Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 11?
- +$21.25at 0.978Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 7?
- +$18.03at 0.971Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 9?
- +$17.04at 0.982Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 9?
- +$15.65at 0.990Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.95 | $5.70 |
| 08-11 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 11? | SELL | 0.992 | $4.96 |
| 08-11 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.99 | $6.93 |
| 08-11 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 11? | SELL | 0.992 | $20.83 |
| 08-11 06:11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.997 | $59.82 |
| 08-11 06:09 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.59 |
| 08-11 06:09 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on August 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.99 |
| 08-11 06:09 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on August 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $23.98 |
| 08-11 06:09 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $33.98 |
| 08-11 06:08 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on August 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $30.96 |
| 08-10 09:28 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 11? | SELL | 0.998 | $43.91 |
| 08-10 09:27 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $53.95 |
| 08-10 09:27 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $53.95 |
| 08-10 09:26 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on August 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $43.93 |
| 08-10 09:26 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 10? | SELL | 0.9981229508 | $121.77 |