mendezcarol
0x47883fc6eaaaa62f6a64d5fec9e1434c0be2c810
- Realised P&L
- $-24.89
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $24.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cincinnati have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · U 5.5 | 0.660 | 0.480 | $24.98 | −$9.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.42at 0.835Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?
- +$6.07at 0.720Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
- +$2.55at 0.999Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31?
- +$0.93at 0.910Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$0.37at 0.700Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:47 | Will Solana dip to $90 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.25 |
| 01-30 12:16 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.25 |
| 01-30 11:53 | Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.78 |
| 01-30 11:52 | Will Opendoor reach $8.25 in January? | BUY | 0.997999999 | $44.65 |
| 12-30 00:43 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.96 |
| 12-30 00:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999953 | $17.90 |
| 12-29 22:27 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999676 | $21.78 |
| 12-29 20:12 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $60.86 |
| 10-31 14:56 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $23.36 |
| 10-30 17:42 | Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.25 |
| 09-29 14:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.73 |
| 09-28 23:59 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.55 |
| 09-28 23:24 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |
| 09-28 22:09 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.993999959 | $15.50 |
| 09-28 22:06 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.50 |