0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06
- Realised P&L
- $317.47
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 230
- Open portfolio
- $25.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded230
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.85at 0.106US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$49.71at 0.220Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$42.56at 0.273Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$40.79at 0.176US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$31.72at 0.490MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 20:00 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.948 | $1.29 |
| 09-04 20:00 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.967 | $2.11 |
| 09-04 20:00 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $27.08 |
| 08-22 18:57 | Kash Patel out by December 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.31 |
| 08-22 18:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.06 |
| 08-22 18:57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.97 |
| 08-03 23:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 02:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 20:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:41 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999588 | $12.70 |
| 08-01 20:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9099999375 | $1.02 |
| 08-01 20:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.64 |
| 08-01 18:54 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.268999812 | $1.00 |