PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06

0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06

Realised P&L
$312.99
Volume
$21.9k
Markets traded
230
Open portfolio
$23.65

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded230
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? · Yes0.8230.925$6.76+$0.75
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat? · No0.9340.930$1.99−$0.01
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? · Yes0.8400.655$1.56−$0.44
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? · No0.7050.525$1.49−$0.51
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat? · No0.9301.000$1.07+$0.07
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat? · No0.9300.991$1.06+$0.07
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? · Yes0.9100.966$1.06+$0.06
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? · No0.9200.976$1.06+$0.06
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat? · Yes0.9300.981$1.05+$0.05
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat? · No0.9300.981$1.05+$0.05
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat? · Yes0.9300.976$1.05+$0.05
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat? · Yes0.9300.970$1.04+$0.04
Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat? · No0.9300.967$1.04+$0.04
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? · Yes0.6600.525$0.80−$0.20
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? · No0.8300.655$0.79−$0.21

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-04 20:00US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?SELL0.948$1.29
09-04 20:00Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?SELL0.967$2.11
09-04 20:00Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.85$27.08
08-22 18:57Kash Patel out by December 31?SELL0.24$0.31
08-22 18:57Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.04$0.06
08-22 18:57Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.16$0.97
08-03 23:45US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.54$1.00
08-02 02:10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.78$1.00
08-01 20:49US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.92$2.20
08-01 20:48US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.91$1.00
08-01 20:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.7$1.00
08-01 20:41US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY0.9699999588$12.70
08-01 20:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9099999375$1.02
08-01 20:40US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.9$2.64
08-01 18:54Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?BUY0.268999812$1.00