saltwatercrocodile62
0x477abdb9568b62df46bcbed8c81dc8bf58abeba2
- Realised P&L
- $0.21
- Volume
- $16.72
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $8.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 14-20? · No | 0.989 | 0.989 | $2.73 | −$0.00 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? · No | 0.992 | 0.999 | $2.40 | +$0.02 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? · Yes | 0.993 | 0.990 | $1.83 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 17? · Yes | 0.968 | 0.962 | $1.34 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.06at 0.962Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 September 7-13?
- +$0.05at 0.974Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 24-30?
- +$0.05at 0.976Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 6?
- +$0.02at 0.980Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6?
- +$0.01at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 21:57 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 17? | BUY | 0.968 | $1.35 |
| 09-15 21:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9929999995 | $1.84 |
| 09-15 21:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.9889999975 | $2.73 |
| 09-08 15:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.9589996599 | $1.39 |
| 09-08 15:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 9? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.78 |
| 09-08 15:08 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.9919998133 | $2.38 |
| 09-03 00:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.9739999959 | $1.90 |
| 09-03 00:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.9789999837 | $1.08 |
| 08-28 21:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 24-30? | BUY | 0.9719999266 | $1.96 |