0x477A08eDde6755dFBA6800829CD89F6E02aFEC4B-1777830798191
0x477a08edde6755dfba6800829cd89f6e02afec4b
- Realised P&L
- $-94.44
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $3.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027? · No | 0.040 | 0.059 | $1.17 | +$0.38 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.135 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.385 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? · Yes | 0.279 | 0.145 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.175 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.65at 0.136Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$1.75at 0.371Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$1.53at 0.402Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
- +$0.89at 0.537Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 16:31 | Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.039643 | $0.79 |
| 06-23 20:14 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 06-14 14:26 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 06-14 14:24 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 05-28 15:18 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 05-23 20:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.28 |
| 05-21 06:06 | Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 05-21 05:56 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 05-21 05:53 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 05:53 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 05:53 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 05:52 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.62 |
| 05-21 05:51 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.008 | $0.64 |
| 05-16 12:42 | Will "Expensive" be said during Eurovision? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 12:42 | Will "Celebrate" or "Celebrated" be said during Eurovision? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |