PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

musaftw

0x47753cb9571d13da2e2cb8241b19ea5568305fdb

Realised P&L
$4.84
Volume
$34.1k
Markets traded
55
Open portfolio
$90.30

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded55
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample27 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0020.003$90.30+$29.34
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2320.000$0.00−$5.00
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · Yes0.1010.000$0.00−$10.62
Will Team Falcons win IEM Krakow 2026? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$5.00
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$9.00
Will Team Liquid win Worlds 2026? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00−$1.50
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw? · Yes0.1020.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET · Down0.2630.000$0.00−$2.00
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? · No0.0130.000$0.00−$2.00
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00−$1.00
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier · OG0.0680.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00−$1.00
Valorant: MIBR vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs · MIBR0.4100.000$0.00−$2.00
Will FURIA win IEM Krakow 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 18:05Will Team Liquid win Worlds 2026?BUY0.0220648968$1.50
10-09 19:01Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.0269999993$1.00
10-09 17:48Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsBUY0.219999978$1.00
10-07 08:58Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?BUY0.003$0.12
10-07 08:57Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?BUY0.12$3.00
10-05 19:54Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?BUY0.0981395349$4.22
10-05 19:53Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?BUY0.1$1.00
10-05 19:51Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?BUY0.09$2.40
09-29 22:13Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?BUY0.0089999999$1.00
09-23 14:53Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?BUY0.011$1.00
09-18 08:27Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?BUY0.007$0.68
09-10 09:11Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group ASELL0.17$3.27
09-10 08:57Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group ABUY0.2599999896$5.00
09-04 18:19Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.002$60.00
09-04 18:18Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.236$1.17